UK Property Market Update - January 2024

Charlie Panayi • January 24, 2024

Summary

• House price inflation down -1.1%, compared to +7.2% a year ago

• New house sales agreed up 17% year-on-year

• House price falls levelled out as sales improve

• Mortgage regulations a key element to support modest price falls in 2023

• First-time buyers are largest group of would-be movers in next 2 years (40%) followed by people up-sizing (34%)

• Almost half of buyers living in southern England (24% of total buyers) looking to move to find better value for money

• Property prices to fall around 2% during 2024

• On track of 1m completed sales in 2024

• 8.8% average mortgage stress test for new borrowers

• Still 10%+ overvalued market 



Q4 2023 sales performed well, supporting price falls

The final weeks of 2023 recorded 17% higher sales than a year ago, also ahead of 2019 levels. Due to rising incomes and the decline in mortgage rates buyer demand is improving, along with an increase in supply boosting choice and supporting sales. It’s evident that buyers and sellers are more aligned on pricing now, which has reduced the downward pressure on values. As of December 2023 the price decline was -1.1%, which is down from +7.2% a year ago. Supporting this statement is that price falls have levelled out across the UK.



Why didn’t house prices fall by more in 2023?

There are several reasons why prices have defied mainstream (not property experts) predictions of larger falls, if you read my blogs back to early 2023 you will see the outcome has reflected what I thought would happen. The strength of the labour market has been an important factor along with high earnings growth. Lenders have also pursued forbearance policies to support households struggling with repayments, which has limited the number of forced sellers. This biggest reason is due to the stress tests mortgage companies took out on borrowers since 2015, where they were ensuring people could afford 7% rates. Originally people panicked, however they soon realised it was affordable. These regulations were designed to stop households taking on excessive debt at a time of low mortgage rates. They have stopped a major housing over-valuation and built resilience for many households to manage the transition to higher mortgage rates. While mortgage rates got as low as 1.3% in late 2021, all new mortgage borrowers had to prove to their bank they could afford a 6- 7% stressed mortgage rate to get the loan (below chart outlines stress testing data from bank of England). Banks were also limited to 15% of new business at high loan to income ratios over 4.5x.

What these regulations did was cap buying power for home buyers. They require home buyers to have a higher income to buy with larger deposits needed. First-time buyers in London put down an average deposit of £145,000 in 2022 compared to £26,000 for those buying in the North East. Today lenders are stress testing new borrowers at close to 9% despite mortgage rates starting to fall. This regulatory constraint on buying power is one reason we believe house prices are unlikely to rise in 2024, even as base rates start to fall later in the year.



First-time buyers to remain largest buyer group in 2024

Despite affordability issues facing first-time buyers, they are still the largest group of potential buyers. Zoopla’s latest survey found that 40% of people looking to buy a home in the next 2 years are first-time buyers. The main driving factor here is the rapid growth in rental prices, which is driving first-time buyers to want to buy, rents have risen faster than mortgages in all of the last three years even with larger deposits. A third of would-be buyers would be up-sizers, looking to buy a larger home, that will likely require larger mortgages. This group have been waiting for the market to stabilise in 2023, hoping to understand the economic outlook and mortgage rates to become clearer, they have instigated that there is more confidence in the market now and will look to make the move, especially as the pricing between buyers and sellers are more realistic.



Buyers looking elsewhere for value

A quarter of home movers say they are looking to move more than 10 miles away (more than half of these are in southern region) from their current location to get better value for money. This is in the face of higher borrowing costs and people wanting for better value, this could be key in 2024 to how certain areas within the UK perform. This is particularly the case in high value housing markets where up-sizing is expensive. The proportion looking longer distances in other parts of the UK is lower. This is important for home builders and estate agents who tend to focus on demand and needs in local areas whereas there is the need to capture and nurture demand coming from further afield, especially as these buyers may well have more money to spend.



Overview

There is likely to be a steady momentum in new sales agreed, following on from the last part of 2023, of which we have already seen for January 2024. Whilst mortgage rates are lowering, affordability is still difficult, meaning it is unlikely for us to see any growth throughout 2024, the more likely outcome would be a further 2% drop, to re-stabilise the market. It’s important to note each area of the UK will perform differently (below I have a graph of January 2024 performance across the UK). The modest decline in house prices over the year means UK housing still looks 10-15% overvalued at the end of 2023. Sales volumes are expected to hold steady at 1 million sales completions over 2024.

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I’m incredibly honored to be shortlisted for the Entrepreneur Award at the IW Chamber Business Awards 2025 .
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Here are five ways pride could be limiting your success... and what you can do about it. 1. Resistance to Feedback: The Silent Growth Killer No one likes criticism. But when pride takes over, even constructive feedback feels like a personal attack . Instead of seeing feedback as a tool for improvement , many leaders see it as a challenge to their authority or expertise . Yet, research has shown that companies that actively seek feedback and foster a culture of learning outperform those that don’t. A study from Zenger & Folkman found that leaders who ask for and act on feedback are rated 86% more effective by their employees (source) . If you struggle to accept feedback, ask yourself: What if this person is right? What opportunities am I missing by ignoring this? Am I resisting feedback because of ego , or because I genuinely disagree? The moment you start separating feedback from personal identity , you unlock a whole new level of growth . 2. Fear of Vulnerability: Why Leaders Struggle to Ask for Help Many business owners and leaders feel pressure to always have the answers . They believe that admitting a mistake or asking for help is a sign of weakness . But in reality, it’s the opposite . Some of the most successful people in the world actively seek out help and mentorship . They surround themselves with advisors, peers, and experts who challenge their thinking and push them forward. If you never ask for help, you risk: Making avoidable mistakes because you didn’t seek advice Slowing down your progress by trying to figure everything out alone Burning out by carrying more than you need to The best leaders don’t go it alone... they build strong support systems and know when to reach out. 3. Stagnation from Perfectionism: The Illusion of ‘Not Ready Yet’ Pride and perfectionism often go hand in hand. Leaders with high standards (which is a good thing) can sometimes become paralysed by the fear of launching something imperfect (which is a bad thing). You tell yourself: “I’ll do it when it’s perfect.” “It’s not quite ready yet.” “I need more time.” But the reality? Perfectionism is often just fear in disguise. The longer you wait, the more momentum you lose. Research suggests that 92% of people fail to achieve their goals , often because they overanalyse or delay starting due to fear of failure. Success isn’t about getting it perfect... it’s about getting it started . 4. Limited Perspective: The Danger of Thinking ‘My Way is the Only Way’ Pride convinces leaders that their way is the best way... but in business, that kind of thinking can kill innovation . The best ideas often come from outside perspectives... from employees, peers, mentors, or even customers. If you shut down new ideas because they don’t align with your way of thinking , you could be missing out on game-changing opportunities . Neuroscience research suggests that leaders who expose themselves to diverse perspectives enhance cognitive flexibility and decision-making skills (source) . The fix? Stay curious . Actively seek out different perspectives . Challenge yourself to see things through someone else’s lens...bec ause that’s often where the biggest breakthroughs happen. 5 . Strained Relationships: When Pride Creates Distance A leader who always needs to be right is a leader who will struggle to build trust . When pride gets in the way, relationships suffer. Employees stop speaking up, business partners hold back ideas, and clients feel unheard. Over time, this creates a culture where collaboration is weak, communication is guarded, and progress slows down. L eaders who demonstrate humility are more effective at building high-performing teams . The most influential leaders aren’t the ones who force their opinions... they’re the ones who listen, adapt, and bring people together. How to Shift: The Power of Humility Balancing confidence with humility is the key to real, sustainable success . The best leaders: ✔️ Embra ce feedback instead of resisting it ✔️ Ask for help without fear of looking weak ✔️ Take action instead of waiting for perfection ✔️ Stay open to new perspectives ✔️ Lead with curiosity, not ego Pride won’t grow your business. Humility will.  Final Thoughts Pride is tricky...it feels like strength, but when it’s unchecked, it can be a hidden weakness. If you recognise any of these patterns in yourself, don’t beat yourself up. Awareness is the first step. The key is to stay open, keep learning, and always be willing to grow. At the end of the day, leadership isn’t about having all the answers... it’s about knowing when to listen, learn, and evolve . If you want to book me for a talk or work with me, reach me via charlie@charliepanayi.com
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