Rental Market Update - May 2024

Charlie Panayi • June 11, 2024

Summary

• UK rental inflation slows to +6.6%

• London leads the slowdown with rents up 3.7% over last 12 months

• Rental still +2x pre-pandemic

• Supply of homes for rent up 18% but still 1/3 below pre-pandemic

• Rents have fallen in some major cities over last quarter

• Room for rental growth in most affordable areas

• Rents continue to outperform wage increases

• Supply/demand imbalance will continue

• Will politics affect the rental market?

UK rental inflation +6.6%, but lowest for 30 months

Annual rental inflation for new lets is up 6.6% as of April 2024, this is 10% lower than a year ago. The average monthly UK rent is £1,226, up £80 over the last year. This is the lowest rate of annual rental price inflation for 30 months (Oct 2021) as demand weakens, due to the sharp rise over recent years and affordability constraints continue. However, it is likely that rental inflation will continue to outperform UK inflation for the foreseeable.


Demand slows with recent increases, however supply low

The chronic imbalance between rental supply and demand is starting to get closer, however it is still vastly imbalanced, this will keep rental prices increasing, just a slower rate.


As the rental prices have increased significantly over the last three years consistently, it had to slow down. Where mortgage rates increased substantially, this kept first-time-buyers out of the market, again increasing pressure on the rental market. Rental demand is down 25% year-on-year but competition for remains high with over 15 households chasing every rental home, in some areas double this, this is more than double the pre-pandemic average of six between 2017-2020.


The average number of homes for rent per estate agent has increased by 18% year-on-year, offering a little more choice. However, the supply of homes for rent remains a third lower than the pre-pandemic period as low investment in rented homes keeps the overall stock of private rented homes broadly flat, with pressure put on landlords from the government.


Demand is down by up to 30% across the East of England, followed by London -28%, the South East -27% and Scotland -27%. The biggest increase of supply is in London at +23.


London taking biggest hit on rental inflation

London has led the slowdown way with average rents rising by just 3.7%, down from over 13% this time last year. The average growth in rents across the rest of the UK, outside of London, is currently 8%. The highest increases in rents are being recorded in the North East (9.5%) and Scotland (9.3%).


In London, the underlying rate of rental inflation -1.3% as average rents have fallen by 0.3% over the last 3 months.


Rent & Earning increases becoming closer

Rents have been rising faster than average earnings for over 2.5 years, since October 2021. With rental inflation slowing, the gap to earnings growth, currently at 6%, is starting to narrow.


The driving factor, obviously being the inability to afford the increases consistently outweighing earning improvements. However, rent levels will continue to be in strong demand, due to low levels of new investment in private rented housing. It’s likely the more affordable areas will continue to heavily outweigh earning increases.


As a country, the proportion of gross earnings spent on rent is the highest for a decade. The steep rise in rents over the last 3 years has worsened rental affordability.


It is not surprising that rents are currently rising fastest in the North of England and Scotland where rental costs account for the lowest proportion of gross earnings. In contrast, London has the highest rents which account for a higher proportion of average earnings – these are now back to 2015 levels having fallen over the pandemic.


Supply & Demand imbalance will continue

It’s likely that the rental supply and demand will improve materially over the next 12 months, however will stay imbalanced. Levels of new investment in the private rented sector remain low, with external pressures from the government making it less appealing, while demand is set to remain above-average. This means rents will continue to increase at a slowing rate.


Private landlords continuing to sell

2016 tax changes rapidly slowed new investment by private landlords. Data on changes in the number of outstanding buy-to-let mortgages shows rapid growth until 2016 followed by much lower levels of new investment until 2022 when the stock of buy-to-let mortgages started to decline as interest rates increased.


Date shows private landlords selling at a continued steady rate. Two-fifths of homes over the last 4 years seem to be private rentals.

Current trends are expected to continue with low new investment by private landlords meaning the stock of rented homes will remain unbalanced between supply & demand. Corporate landlords will continue to invest but it will take some years for this group to grow ownership levels enough to impact on supply at a macro level.


There are also concerns over what further pressures the government will put on the private landlord sector, if further pressure is applied then this would in turn affect the rental market also, continuing to increase prices.


Politics & Outlook!

The rental inflation is likely to continue to drop throughout 2024, as its not sustainable to continue at the previous growth, meaning a slowdown was inevitable , likely around the 5% region.


On the politics front, the Rental Reform Bill failed to make it onto the statute books, it seems likely that rental reform will return in the next parliament whichever party forms the next Government.


While changing the protections for existing renters is important, the greatest importance is to boost the stock of homes for rent – both private and affordable through greater housing delivery, whilst in my opinion encouraging investors back to the market at mass.


Only by boosting supply there can be an improvement on choice for renters, with this you can then apply pressure to increase the quality of housing.

While there has been more political focus on the challenges facing the private rented sector, progress will only happen with whichever setting out specific plans and goals for the future of the private rented sector in manifestos. A healthy private rented sector is vital for economic growth and a more balanced housing market.


Check out the latest statistics below from Zoopla:


Want to work with Charlie? Charlie is an inspirational speaker, property expert and business scaling expert

By Charlie Panayi November 27, 2025
(aka: I tried not to rant… but here we are) Ok… I’ve taken the night so I don’t rant too much, but honestly? This Budget has left me scratching my head. I genuinely cannot understand the logic of it, and yet, with this government… I can. What we saw this week doesn’t support growth, it doesn’t encourage work and it definitely does not reward the people who actually build this country. Instead, it does the one thing you should never do in a fragile economy... It stifles ambition, punishes entrepreneurship and discourages anyone trying to get ahead. An d that’s the part that gets me, who is thinking this stuff up? With what logic? In what universe does any of this equal “growth”? Let’s break down exactly what they’ve done, in plain English with actual specifics... and by the way I give an optimistic view at the bottom... YES Fiscal Drag on Steroids (and nobody voted for this) The government has frozen tax thresholds for years into the future. What does that mean in real life? You get a small pay rise Or your business earns a bit more Or inflation pushes wages up (as it always does) A nd suddenly, you’re in a higher tax band. It’s a tax rise without them admitting it’s a tax rise...A stealth tax. Quiet. Sneaky. Effective. This affects: workers business owners company directors self-employed people Basically, anyone who earns anything from honest effort. And let’s be clear, this doesn’t hit “the rich.” This affects normal people . Attacks on Investment & Property (aka: why build anything here?) The Budget introduces: Dividend tax is rising by +2 percentage points From the next tax year: Basic rate dividend tax: 8.75% → 10.75% Higher rate dividend tax: 33.75% → 35.75% Additional rate dividend tax: 39.35% → approx. 41.35% So if you take money from your own company? You now pay more tax for doing so. Rental income & savings income tax is also rising by +2 percentage points Basic rate: 20% → 22% Higher rate: 40% → 42% Additional rate: 45% → 47% If you’re a landlord or you receive any savings interest? You now get taxed more, instantly reducing margins and profitability. A brand-new “mansion tax” on homes over £2m This starts in April 2028 : Properties £2m–£2.5m → £2,500/year surcharge Properties up to £5m+ → up to £7,500/year This is on top of normal council tax. Not instead of. On top of. The message is loud and clear: “Don’t bother investing here. Build your future somewhere else.” It’s unbelievable, if you want people to invest in housing, in businesses, in long-term growth...you don’t do this. Crushing small businesses and directors SMEs make up 99% of UK businesses. They employ the majority of the private sector. They are the backbone of this country. So what does the Budget do to help them? In fact, it does the opposite. Higher tax on dividends As above, 2 percentage points more across the board. This directly affects company directors who pay themselves through dividends, which is practically every SME director in the UK. Higher tax on property income This affects: landlords serviced accommodation operators small portfolio owners anyone who diversified into property to create security Threshold freezes Because income bands aren’t rising with inflation, more business owners will fall into: higher tax brackets higher corporation tax pain higher marginal deductions Less incentive to hire If profit is taxed more…and taking that profit out of your own company is also taxed more… Why would any business want to employ anyone or expand in that manner? This then directly affects employment and opportunity for those wanting. And the consequence? People are leaving. In droves. This is already happening. Hundreds of thousands of people have left the UK, year after year. Even more plan to leave, and this was before the Budget. And honestly? I don’t blame them. Why stay in a country where success is treated like a threat? Where building something is punished? Where taking risks becomes pointless? This Budget doesn’t strengthen the UK...It accelerates the brain drain . This Isn’t About Left or Right… It’s About LOGIC This isn’t a political rant. This is a business owner’s frustration. This is from someone who genuinely wants people to do well. Because it feels like we’re watching decisions made by a government that: doesn’t understand how SMEs operate doesn’t grasp how investment works doesn’t see long-term consequences doesn’t value entrepreneurship doesn’t incentivise growth in any meaningful way A strong UK economy cannot be built by squeezing the very people who generate its wealth. We deserve better...The UK deserves better. And Here’s the Optimistic Reality (Yes, There Is One) Now for the part people forget: Waiting for any government to fix your life, your income, your business or your future is a losing game. They won’t. They never have. And this Budget proves it. But here’s the good news... Opportunity doesn’t disappear, it just shifts. In every downturn…In every bad policy cycle…In every “what on earth are they doing?” moment… There are people who: spot gaps adapt faster solve problems take advantage of markets others are too scared to enter build businesses when everyone else complains grow when others freeze invest when others retreat The most successful people I know didn’t win because of government policy. They won in spite of it . The smart ones will pivot. The brave ones will act. The frustrated ones (like all of us right now) will still find a way, because we always do. There is ALWAYS opportunity out there. Not controlled by governments. Not restricted by budgets. Not cancelled by tax hikes. If anything, chaos creates more opportunity. And the people who stay alert, stay adaptable and stay ambitious will thrive, regardless of what’s happening in Westminster. So yes, this Budget is madness. But it doesn’t get to decide your future. You do.
By Charlie Panayi November 18, 2025
This is the biggest shake-up to private renting in decades. From 1 May 2026 the rules around repossessions, deposits and property standards change, and that means landlords must act now. Below is a plain-English guide: what’s changing, what it actually means, and a simple to-do checklist so you can get on with it. If you want templates, examples and a downloadable checklist, join my live briefing (if you can't make the date email me to join webinar link)  . Book the briefing → https://www.eventbrite.com/e/renters-reform-2026-biggest-changes-in-decades-tickets-1969971230982?aff=oddtdtcreator
By Charlie Panayi October 16, 2025
A Milestone Moment in Parliament
By Charlie Panayi September 25, 2025
Building Confidence When Pitching to Investors
By Charlie Panayi September 1, 2025
It’s one of the questions I hear most often as an agent on the Island 
By Charlie Panayi September 1, 2025
“When’s the best time to sell my house?”
By Charlie Panayi August 13, 2025
In August 2025, I set out to climb Mont Blanc — at 4,806m (15,774ft), the highest peak in Western Europe . It turned out to be the hardest thing I’ve ever done...physically, mentally, and emotionally. I knew it would test me. I just didn’t know how much.
By Charlie Panayi July 8, 2025
Overview
By Charlie Panayi June 16, 2025
The UK rental market is moving again, but this time, it’s not all heat. Rents are still rising, but at their slowest pace in years, and we’re finally seeing more stock come through. For landlords, this is the time to get smart, yes the demand is still high but: margins are tighter, tenant expectations are higher, and the days of just listing and waiting are over. Below, I break down the key stats and what they really mean, plus how I’m navigating it with my own portfolio.
By Charlie Panayi May 3, 2025
If you’re in or around the property world right now, you’ll know the market is shifting again. And once again — it’s not about panic, it’s about preparation. Here’s a straight-talking update on what’s happening, what it means for you, and where I see the opportunities right now.